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Photovoltaics with a capital »P« – the European perspective
December, 2009: To find out the high regard in which the European Commission’s Joint Research Center (JRC) in Ispra, Italy, holds PV, just look at the recently released eighth edition of it PV Status Report 2009.
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© EC Joint Research Centre (JRC) |
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Latest edition: The European Commission's JRC updates a review on the »bank for the future.«
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Almost every time photovoltaics gets mentioned in the 115-page review, author Arnulf Jäger-Waldau of the JRC’s renewable energy unit writes the word with a capital »P« – and, indeed, he sees a big future for PV. By taking in many sources, this comprehensive – and free – annual report examines not only PV highlights in research, production, markets and installation for the past, but the future as well. While putting last year’s annual production at 7.35 GW for an 80-percent growth over 2007 – slightly lower than our 7.9 GW for an 85-percent increase (see PI 3/2009, p. 170) – Jäger-Waldau seems to shy away from predictions on actual production in 2009. The closest he comes concerns 2010, when Jäger-Waldau expects the availability of 120,000 tons of silicon for the solar industry, an area of production that still requires »drastic increases« to maintain market growth. As material usage declines from the current 10g to 8 g per W, this would »theoretically« be enough for 15 GW of silicon-based cells, plus 6 GW of thin-film modules. One could argue that the latter gets too much coverage in the report, with Jäger-Waldau forecasting thin films could grow to up to 25 percent of the market by 2010. For production capacity as a whole, Jäger-Waldau notes that if all the »ambitious« plans come true, there could be 34 GW of capacity available in 2010. Given current announcements, this might increase to 54 MW by 2012, he adds, at which point China’s worldwide share would be 32 percent. The PV Status Report is full of such interesting tidbits, as well as a credible overview of the top national markets for production and installations. Still, in future editions it would be helpful if JRC included subheads within the seven chapters to help readers navigate topics that sometimes tend to run together. While the report includes a disclaimer saying it is not meant to represent EC proposals or policy, the contents are obviously aimed at those who shape its future – they would certainly do well to read it, especially the nudge concerning volatile oil prices. As Jäger-Waldau writes, PV systems are »a bank for the future.« PV Status Report 2009 Arnulf Jäger-Waldau EC DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Renewable Energy Unit For a free download, go to: http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/refsys/pdf/PV-Report2009.pdf
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William P. Hirshman
© PHOTON International, December 2009 Duplicate only with allowance of PHOTON Europe GmbH, Aachen, Germany |
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